votes: Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula after the first round on 4 October (47.03% to 45.16%).
votes: Lula’s winning margin in the runoff on 25 October (51.79% to 48.21%).
How Brazil picks a president
- Two rounds since 1989. Winning outright takes more than half of valid votes; blank and null ballots don’t count.
- Voting is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70. 158.7 million were eligible this year.
- Electronic ballots, counted by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on election night.
Lula gained 6.6 points of the valid vote in three weeks
On 4 October seven other candidates shared 7.8% of the valid vote. By 25 October only two names were on the ballot, and Lula took far more of what was freed up.
Valid votes exclude blank and null ballots. Source: TSE totals as reported by Poder360, Metrópoles, Tribuna de Jundiaí and Correio 24horas.
votes Lula added between rounds for every one Flávio Bolsonaro added: 10.4 million against 3.7 million.
Every runoff winner before 2026 had led the first round
Winning margin in each runoff since 1989, in percentage points of the valid vote. Lula’s 3.6-point margin is the third-closest, but it is the only one won from behind.
1994 and 1998 were settled in the first round. Sources: TSE historical results, compiled by Wikipedia; 2026 from TSE totals as reported. “First since 1989”: AP via NPR; Chronicle India.
14.1 million votes changed hands, and Lula took 10.4 million
Between rounds the two finalists added 14.1 million votes. That is exactly the size of the pool they could draw on: the eliminated candidates’ voters, plus 4.8 million more valid votes as turnout rose. We can’t see who moved where; we can see the totals.
Computed from TSE totals: round-one valid votes from each finalist’s count and share; runoff valid votes are the two finalists’ totals. Figures rounded to 0.1 million.
More people voted
About 33.5 million registered voters skipped round one. Every extra voter who came back on 25 October was up for grabs.
Only one state changed hands: Minas Gerais
Each tile is one state, placed roughly where it sits. Sources: O Povo and Estadão (via O Liberal) from TSE data; Minas Gerais flip: CNN Brasil via Agora RN, Acessa.
Minas Gerais
Brazil’s second-largest electorate, and the state that has backed the national winner in recent races, was the only one to switch sides.
5.7 million votes
5.1 million votes
6,351,099 votes
6,241,786 votes
A 109,313-vote win, the tightest of any state.
towns that Flávio won on 4 October and Lula won on 25 October. Only one, Uirapuru in Goiás, flipped the other way.
Keek Inteligência Analítica; ES HojeDown to one vote
- Marquinho, Paraná: 1,530 to 1,530, a dead heat.
- Apiacá, Espírito Santo: Lula 2,366, Flávio 2,365.
- Lula gained votes in all 27 units; Flávio lost votes in six states.
A result disputed, then not
On election night Flávio Bolsonaro said it was impossível reconhecer o resultado
(impossible to recognise the result) and promised to seek annulment.
His target was the court-ordered two-hour extension of voting, though his own campaign had asked for longer voting in rain-hit towns in São Paulo and the South.
On 26 October he dropped the annulment plan.
Flávio lost the presidency; his party won Congress
The same 4 October vote made the Liberal Party (PL) the largest party in both houses from February 2027. No party has a majority alone.
One square per seat. Sources: Times Brasil, Congresso em Foco, O Povo, CNN Brasil, Correio da Manhã.
The case against “comeback”
A 3.6-point margin is close by Brazil’s standards: only 2014 and 2022 were tighter. The same voters handed the right its biggest Chamber bench since 1988, and the loser called the result illegitimate before backing off. Read that way, 25 October shows a split country more than a swing.
Sources & method
The TSE’s final totalisation page could not be opened from our desk. Every figure on this board was matched across at least two outlets that cite the TSE, or computed from those figures. Figures reported by only one outlet were left off. The 14.1 million “pool” is arithmetic on totals, not a measure of who switched.
- Runoff totals: Tribuna de Jundiaí; Correio 24horas; Acessa
- First round: Poder360; Metrópoles
- First comeback since 1989: AP via NPR; Chronicle India
- Fourth term, from 5 Jan 2027: Reuters; News of Bahrain
- States: O Povo; O Liberal; Agora RN; Correio 24horas
- Towns: ES Hoje; Paraíba Business (Keek)
- Turnout: Congresso em Foco; O Liberal
- The challenge: O Liberal; Times Brasil; Fundação Perseu Abramo
- Congress: Times Brasil; Congresso em Foco; CNN Brasil
- Past runoffs: Elections in Brazil (TSE data)
- Primary source to confirm against: TSE results portal
- More data stories: the vizmaya story archive
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Brazil’s 2026 runoff, pinned to one board
How Lula da Silva came from behind to beat Flávio Bolsonaro. Follow the tour, or drag the board and zoom into any card.
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Behind by 2.2 million, ahead by 4.4 million
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October by 2,224,965 votes. Lula won the runoff on 25 October by 4,430,191.
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Two rounds, one rule
Win more than half of valid votes or face a runoff. Voting is compulsory and electronic, and the count is done on the night.
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A 6.6-point jump
Lula’s share of the valid vote rose from 45.16% to 51.79%. Flávio’s barely moved, from 47.03% to 48.21%. For every vote Flávio added, Lula added 2.8.
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Nobody had done it before
In seven runoffs since 1989, the first-round leader always won. Lula’s margin is the third-closest, and the only one won from behind.
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Where 10.4 million votes came from
Eliminated candidates had 9.3 million votes, and turnout rose by enough to add 4.8 million valid votes. Lula took 10.4 million of the 14.1 million; Flávio 3.7 million.
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One state changed hands
Lula swept the North-East, Flávio the South and Centre-West. Only Minas Gerais switched, from Flávio in round one to Lula in the runoff.
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Minas: 109,313 votes
Lula went from 5.1 million votes to 6.35 million in Minas Gerais and won it 50.43% to 49.57%, the closest state on the map.
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211 towns flipped
Lula gained votes in every state. In 211 towns he overturned a first-round defeat; in two places the runoff came down to one vote or none.
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A challenge, withdrawn
Flávio Bolsonaro called the result impossible to recognise on election night, and dropped his annulment plan the next day.
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Who pays
Flávio’s party, the PL, will be the largest in both houses: 121 of 513 deputies and 28 of 81 senators. Lula’s PT-led federation has 88 deputies.
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The case against “comeback”
A close margin, a right-leaning Congress and a disputed night: 25 October can also be read as a country split almost down the middle.
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The whole case
That’s the tour. Sources and method are pinned bottom left; the board is yours to explore.