Panorama of the huge open pit at the Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile
Photo: Diego Delso / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Copper market · 20 October 2026

Copper has a surplus. So why does it still feel short?

The metal exists. It is just in the wrong place.

vizmaya desk · 20 Oct 2026

The story in four numbers

Four numbers explain this whole story.

$14,448

London 3-month price on Oct 19. The record is $14,875, set Sep 10.

Reuters via MetalRadar, Oct 16 and Oct 19

+104,000 t

Copper surplus the ICSG now expects for 2026. A year ago it expected a 150,000 t shortage.

ICSG, Oct 14, via Reuters; SMM, Oct 2025

3.2×

US warehouse stock against London's: 715,109 t vs 226,600 t.

Cochilco, Oct 14 and Oct 15

$0

The 2026 fee smelters earn per tonne of copper powder. It was $88 in 2023.

Benchmark Minerals, S&P Global, Reuters

First, the basics

Copper is what electricity runs through.

Copper carries power very well, and it is cheap enough to use by the kilometre. So it sits inside wires, motors and power grids.

Power grids, electric motors and data centres all need more of it as they grow.

Rows of server racks with cables in a data centre
Photo: Victor Grigas / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

Two businesses, three steps

Miners make the ingredient. Smelters make the metal.

  1. 1. MineDig up rock with a little copper in it.
  2. 2. ConcentrateCrush the rock into a copper-rich powder.
  3. 3. SmelterMelt the powder into pure copper sheets. The miner pays the smelter a fee for this.
Archive photo of a copper smelter beside a large open-pit mine in Utah
Archive photo: Kennecott smelter and mine, US National Archives (NARA 544788) / Wikimedia Commons, public domain

The price

The price has stayed close to its record.

Since late July, copper has traded between about $13,800 and $14,550 a tonne.

On Oct 19 the 3-month price was $14,448. That is 2.9% under the record of $14,875. Copper is up about 16% this year.

Source: Cochilco daily reports (cash price, cents per pound converted to dollars per tonne); Reuters via MetalRadar for the 3-month price and record.

Where the metal sits

One country holds far more copper than the rest.

Exchanges keep copper in warehouses so buyers can collect it. The US exchange, Comex, holds 715,109 tonnes. London holds 226,600.

That is 3.2 times as much.

Source: Cochilco daily reports (Comex Oct 14, LME Oct 15); Reuters via MetalRadar (SHFE Oct 16).

Why the US?

A possible US tax on copper is a likely reason the metal sits there.

  • A tax on refined copper: 15% from Jan 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.
  • A report says the plan has stalled. US prices fall more than 5% in one day.
  • US warehouse stock rises from 640,770 to 715,109 tonnes. London's falls from 272,975 to 226,600 (Oct 15).
  • No decision on the tax.

Our reading Buyers likely ship metal in early to beat the tax. The data shows the pile growing, not the reason.

Sources: ING Think; Reuters via Kitco, Sep 10, 2026; Cochilco daily reports. Reason is our interpretation.

What forecasters say

A year ago experts saw a shortage. Now they see a small surplus.

The ICSG is a group of governments that tracks copper. In Oct 2025 it expected 2026 to fall 150,000 tonnes short.

Its Oct 2026 forecast is a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes. That is a swing of 254,000 tonnes.

Source: ICSG forecasts, Oct 2025, Apr 2026 and Oct 14, 2026, via SMM, Metal Radar and Reuters. Swing is our arithmetic.

Our reading

So how can there be a surplus and a squeeze?

A surplus adds up all the copper in the world. A factory in Europe cannot use copper locked in an American warehouse.

So the world can have extra metal while buyers outside the US still pay a high price.

The real shortage

The tight part is the rock, not the metal.

12.8% less

Chile mined 369,500 tonnes in August, 12.8% less than a year earlier. It was the lowest month since February 2011.

The ICSG also cut its 2026 mine growth forecast to 1.3%, from 1.6%.

Satellite image of the Escondida copper mine in the Chilean desert
Satellite image of Escondida, the world's largest copper mine: NASA / METI / AIST / Japan Space Systems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain

The squeeze

Smelters now earn nothing for turning powder into metal.

Normally the miner pays the smelter a fee. Rock is so scarce that smelters compete for it. The 2026 fee was set at $0.

Top Chinese smelters have agreed to cut their use of this powder by more than 10% in 2026.

Archive photo of a copper smelter with tall chimneys in Miami, Arizona, in 1915
Archive photo: copper smelter, Miami, Arizona, 1915 / Wikimedia Commons, public domain

The market read

Miners hold the power. Smelters and buyers outside the US pay.

WinningMiners. The fee they pay fell from $88 to $0 in three years.
LosingSmelters. Top Chinese smelters agreed to cut their copper-powder use by more than 10% in 2026. Buyers outside the US pay for scarce nearby metal.
What the price saysAt $14,448, copper sits 2.9% under its record despite a forecast surplus. The market is paying for metal people can reach.

Sources: Reuters and S&P Global (fees); Mysteel and Crux Investor (smelter cuts); Reuters via MetalRadar (price, spreads).

Terraced walls of the Chuquicamata open-pit copper mine in Chile
Photo: Diego Delso / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

This week in copper

Two big strikes ended. The price barely moved.

  • About 22% of workers at Centinela mine in Chile go on strike.
  • BHP and the Escondida union sign a 36-month deal. No strike at the world's biggest copper mine.
  • The ICSG raises its 2026 surplus forecast to about 104,000 tonnes.
  • London 3-month copper dips to a near two-week low of $14,256.
  • Centinela workers ratify a deal. Contested: the company says output stayed normal. Unions said it was falling.

Sources: Reuters via Mining Weekly and MetalRadar; SMM; Mining.com; ICSG press release list.

The best case against us

The surplus could be the bigger story.

  • The ICSG expects the surplus to grow to about 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
  • US prices fell more than 5% in a day on tariff news alone. If the tax is dropped, US-held metal could move and the squeeze could ease. Speculation
  • China's economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter. Growth is modest in the world's biggest copper buyer.

Sources: ICSG via Reuters, Oct 14, 2026; Oilprice.com, Sep 23, 2026; Reuters via MetalRadar, Oct 19, 2026; Trading Economics, Oct 19, 2026.

What to watch next

One date and three piles to watch.

  • The proposed start of the US refined-copper tax. No decision yet.
  • Comex stock: 715,109 t on Oct 14. If it starts to fall, metal is leaving the US.
  • LME stock: 229,650 t on Oct 13, 226,600 t on Oct 15. A fall would mean more tightness outside the US.
  • SHFE stock: up 25.9% in a week to 73,962 t on Oct 16.

Sources: Kitco, Sep 10, 2026; Cochilco via CNN Chile; Reuters via MetalRadar, Oct 16, 2026.

Sources and claims log

34 claims checked. Only the verified ones are on these slides.

21
Verified
6
Contested
7
Unverified, left out
  • Contested: Centinela output during the strike, whether Escondida strikes hit supply, the size of the US hoard, the Oct 12 cash "record", China's refined output growth, the cause of the El Teniente deaths.
  • Could not find: the ICSG release in full, daily LME prices from Sep 4 to Oct 11, a second source for the below-zero spot smelter fee deals.
  • Sources: ICSG, Reuters via Mining Weekly, Reuters via MetalRadar, Cochilco via CNN Chile, Mining.com, Oilprice.com, ING Think. More stories: vizmaya stories.
  • Photos: Diego Delso (CC BY-SA 4.0), Victor Grigas (CC BY-SA 3.0), US National Archives, NASA ASTER team, all via Wikimedia Commons.

vizmaya desk · 20 Oct 2026