Did an asteroid kill the dinosaurs?
A rock the size of a mountain hits Earth. The sky goes dark for months. Almost everything big dies.
That is the story. But nobody saw it happen. So how do we know? And could it happen again?
Hero photo: Meteor Crater (Barringer Crater), Arizona, from the air. It shows what one small rock does to the ground.
Find it on Wikimedia CommonsSpace rocks come in sizes. The dinosaur killer was 10 km wide.
Most space rocks are tiny. They burn up high in the sky. Sometimes a falling stone punches a hole in someone's roof.
But sometimes the rock is not small. Keep this ruler in mind. Every story below sits somewhere on it.
The ruler is logarithmic: each step is ten times bigger. Sizes are estimates. The 1991 rock is 5 to 10 m by the astronomers who found it.
The rock that ended the dinosaurs was about 1,000 times wider than the one that hit Siberia
Width in metres, log scale. Sources: NASA/JPL, Borovička 2016, Britannica, ScienceDaily (see Sources).
We know it happens, because a hole in Arizona proved it.
First, look at precedent. A huge crater in Arizona was once blamed on a volcano. It was not a volcano. It was a rock from space.
The crater is 1.2 km wide and about 50,000 years old. One mining engineer said so, and the experts laughed at him.
Craters exist elsewhere too, which is how we know Arizona is not a one-off. The old text also mentions a 100-mile crater in southern Australia. I could not confirm that one, so it is left out.
How a crater went from "volcano" to "impact"
- Early 1900sDaniel Barringer says a huge iron rock made it. He drills for 27 years and finds no iron.
- Why no iron?The rock hit so fast it turned to vapour. Only small bits remain.
- 1960Eugene Shoemaker finds stishovite in the crater, a mineral made only under extreme pressure.
- 1963Shoemaker compares it to craters made by nuclear tests in Nevada. Case closed.
Sources: NASA Goddard, impactcraters.us, craterexplorer.ca.
In 1908 a rock blew up over Siberia and flattened 80 million trees.
It did not need to hit the ground. It exploded about 5 miles up. The blast knocked down trees across 830 square miles.
The trees all fell pointing away from one spot. But no crater, and no piece of rock, was ever found.
Most scientists say a small asteroid, or an icy chunk of comet, burst in the air. The 150-foot size and the "skipping stone" picture are from the old text. The energy is argued: 3 to 50 megatons, with 10 to 15 the usual guess. The old text said 1,200 square miles. Modern surveys say 830 (2,150 km²).
Next to Tunguska, the Hiroshima bomb is a speck
Megatons of TNT. Hatched bar is a range, not a measurement. Sources: Britannica, Wikipedia, EBSCO.
Photo: flattened forest at Tunguska, taken in 1929 on Leonid Kulik's expedition. The trees all point away from the blast.
Find it on Wikimedia CommonsA satellite saw a double flash over the ocean. Nobody agrees what it was.
The second impact is less certain. A US satellite saw a huge double flash in the far south of the Atlantic and Indian oceans. That is the signature of a nuclear bomb.
South Africa and Israel were suspected. Both denied it. Some say an asteroid did it instead.
Correction. The old text said 1978. The flash was on 22 September 1979. The "asteroid hit Earth" idea is also not what the 1980 panel said. It said the most likely cause was a small rock hitting the satellite itself. Most outside researchers today think it was a nuclear test.
Three answers to one flash
- A nuclear testThe view of most independent researchers. Backed by a 2022 look at ozone data taken minutes later.
- A rock hitting the satelliteThe 1980 White House panel's most likely answer. It never gave a full model.
- An asteroid hitting EarthThe old claim in this text. Weak: no impact site, no debris.
22 Sept 1979, 00:53 UTC. Many US records are still secret. Sources: Wilson Center, Space.com, Skeptoid.
Small rocks pass us all the time. Sometimes they hit.
In January 1991 astronomers in Arizona spotted a rock called 1991 BA. It came within about 106,000 miles. That is less than half the way to the Moon.
It was only about 26 feet across. But it was found while passing, not before.
In 2013 a similar surprise did not miss. A 19 m rock blew up over Chelyabinsk in Russia, with about 30 Hiroshimas of energy. Nobody saw it coming.
Chelyabinsk hurt about 1,500 people, mostly from broken window glass. About 1,100 sought care and 112 went to hospital. No one died. The old text says only a dog has ever been killed, in Egypt in 1911. That tale is old and I could not confirm it.
The 1991 rock passed at less than half the distance to the Moon
Distance from Earth. Sources: IAU Circular 5172, Wikipedia (1991 BA), Borovička 2016.
Photo: the Chelyabinsk fireball trail over the city, 15 February 2013. Pick one with a clear licence on Commons.
Find it on Wikimedia CommonsNow scale it up. The crater in Mexico is 180 km wide.
The grandest question is whether such an event killed the dinosaurs. Many scientists say yes. The rock hit the Caribbean basin, near Yucatán in Mexico.
It threw up so much dust that the world went dark for months. The fireball made a deadly acid rain. The air itself changed, maybe for centuries.
The old text says 65 million years ago. Newer dating says 66. The energy is estimated at about 100 million megatons. That is billions of Hiroshima bombs.
Arizona's famous crater is a dot next to Chicxulub
Crater width in km. Some work says the outer rim is 300 km. The crater is buried under Yucatán. Sources: ScienceDaily, Penn State review.
Radar relief map of the Yucatán Peninsula. A faint ring marks the buried Chicxulub crater.
The proof was hiding in a half-inch layer of clay.
In 1980 Walter Alvarez and his father Luis found a thin clay layer in Italy. It sat exactly where the dinosaurs vanish from the rocks.
The clay was full of iridium. Iridium is rare on Earth but common in space rocks. Other places around the world showed the same spike.
The old text says the idea came in the early 1980s. The key paper was published in June 1980. Their first number was about 30 times more iridium than the rocks around it.
One clue, then a global hunt, then a crater
- 1977Walter Alvarez brings clay samples from Gubbio, Italy, to Berkeley.
- 1980Iridium spike found. Denmark and New Zealand show it too. Paper published.
- 1980sShocked quartz and tiny glass beads turn up in layers worldwide.
- 1990A graduate student, Alan Hildebrand, links old oil-company data on a buried ring in Yucatán to the clue. That is the crater.
Sources: Linda Hall Library, California Curated, Wikipedia (Chicxulub).
Photo: the thin dark K-Pg boundary clay in the white cliffs at Stevns Klint, Denmark. Or the Gubbio outcrop with the Alvarezes.
Find it on Wikimedia CommonsA fish graveyard in North Dakota may show the first hours after impact.
The site is called Tanis. It is about 3,000 km from the crater. Thousands of fish were buried in one sudden surge of mud and water.
Many fish had tiny glass beads of melted rock stuck in their gills. Those beads fall from the sky within hours of an impact.
This is new since the old text. Many experts say Tanis is at least very close to the impact. Whether it is the exact day, and whether the dinosaur fossils are from that day, is still argued. Most of the extra claims are not yet fully published.
The claimed first hours, in order
- Minute 0The rock hits near Yucatán.
- About 13 minutesShaking from the impact reaches Tanis (the team's estimate).
- Within hoursGlass beads rain down. A surge of water carries fish, logs and shells inland and buries them.
- On top, laterA clay layer rich in iridium seals the site. That ties it to the K-Pg boundary.
Timings are the research team's claims. Sources: WTTW, Science News, Inverse.
Not everyone agrees. India's volcanoes were erupting at the same time.
Of course, this is theory. Many paleontologists accept that an impact happened but doubt it caused the extinction. One reason: many animals lived through it.
The rival suspect is the Deccan Traps, a huge lava field in India. It was already erupting before the rock hit.
Two 2019 studies disagreed on the timing. A 2020 study in Science argued the big gas release ended before the impact, and only the impact lines up with the die-off. A middle view says both mattered, and the impact may have sped up the eruptions. About 75% of species were lost.
The volcanoes ran for about a million years. The impact took one day.
Years from the impact. Window is from one 2019 team: starts about 400,000 years before, ends about 600,000 after. Other teams differ. Source: National Geographic.
Could it happen again? A world-changing hit comes about once in 500,000 years.
If you like gambling, this is all about odds. NASA found them slim but not zero. A rock 1 km wide or more hits about every 500,000 years.
Over a 70-year life, that works out to about 1 in 7,000. The old text compares that to a car crash (1 in 100) and a plane crash (1 in 20,000).
The 1 in 7,000 is simple math: 70 divided by 500,000. The car and plane odds are from the old text and not re-checked. Smaller rocks are far more likely, but they do local, not global, damage.
The bigger the rock, the longer the wait
Average years between hits, log scale. Estimates. Sources: Catalina Sky Survey (LPL), NASA via Sky at Night, Wikipedia.
This time we are looking, and we have already moved an asteroid.
In September 2022 NASA's DART spacecraft crashed into a small asteroid called Dimorphos. It was a test. Dimorphos was never a threat.
NASA hoped to shorten its orbit by 73 seconds. It shortened it by 32 minutes.
NASA's latest count I found: 874 asteroids over 1 km found, with about 50 left to find. For 140 m rocks: 11,373 found, about 14,000 still unknown. A new space telescope, NEO Surveyor, is due in 2027, per recent reports.
NASA asked for 73 seconds and got 32 minutes
Orbit shortened from 11 h 55 min to 11 h 23 min, a 4% change. Warning time matters: it works if done years ahead. Sources: NASA via Space.com, Science News Explores.
The DART team at Johns Hopkins APL watching the impact, 26 September 2022.
So, did an asteroid kill the dinosaurs?
Almost certainly it was the main blow. The crater, the clay layer and the glass beads all point to one day, 66 million years ago.
The open question is how much the volcanoes helped. Either way, the same kind of rock is still out there. This time we are watching.
Six numbers to keep
million years since the dinosaur-killing impact
ScienceDirect/Penn State reviewkm wide, the Chicxulub crater (at least)
ScienceDailymillion trees flattened at Tunguska, 1908
Wikipedia, Britannicapeople hurt in Chelyabinsk, 2013, mostly by glass
Wikipedia, Borovička 2016the 1-in odds of a world-changing hit in a 70-year life
Simple math on NASA's 500,000-year figureminutes DART shortened Dimorphos's orbit
NASA via Space.com