A new Canadian reactor needs fuel with one licensed Western maker
BWXT's BANR microreactor was picked for New Brunswick this week. Its fuel is made at scale only in Russia and China. The one licensed Western maker had produced about 1.9 tonnes by mid-June.
vizmaya desk · 12 October 2026
The fuel is small, late and concentrated
HALEU made by Centrus, the one licensed Western maker, in total.
To mid-June 2026 · Centrus, ANS
When Centrus's first new capacity is due, aiming for 12 tonnes a year.
Plan · WNA, Centrus
Share of world enrichment capacity held by Russia's Rosatom.
2025 · WNA
Long-term uranium price per pound, above the 2007 to 2008 peak.
30 Sep 2026 · Cameco
Three things in seven days
Prodigy Clean Energy and two First Nations pick BWXT's BANR for Belledune, New Brunswick. Two 22 MWe units on HALEU fuel. The exact announcement day is unconfirmed.
Kazatomprom shareholders reject a uranium contract with Russia's Uranium One and approve one with China's SNURDC.
The US Department of Energy offers Vistra a conditional loan of up to $4.2 billion for 433 MW of uprates. It is not yet funded.
Sources: World Nuclear News and BWXT release; Trend.az, Kursiv, NucNet; Utility Dive, POWER.
The reactor is the easy part. The fuel is not.
BANR runs on HALEU. That is uranium enriched to more than 5% and less than 20%. Most power reactors use fuel under 5%.
Only Russia and China make HALEU at scale. Russia's Tenex was the only company selling it, and it cannot sell into the US.
Source: World Nuclear Association, HALEU
One licensed Western maker has made about 1.9 tonnes
Centrus runs a HALEU plant in Piketon, Ohio. Its test run made more than 1,900 kg by mid-June 2026, then the contract ended. Centrus says it is the only Western company licensed by the US regulator to make HALEU.
Gap: nothing I found says where BANR's fuel will come from.
Sources: Centrus release; ANS; WNA.
Made in total, to mid-June 2026
Planned with a $900M DOE award
First new capacity
Russia holds 43% of the world's enrichment
Rosatom's share is 42.8% in 2025 and falls to 38.3% by 2030, as China and France add capacity.
*CNNC is contested: the table shows 13.8 million SWU for 2025, the same page's text says about 9 million. Urenco is a multi-country group, so shares are by operator.
Source: WNA, 29 Sep 2026
The US door to Russian fuel closes on a schedule
The US ban on Russian low-enriched uranium starts.
The waiver authority that allows exceptions ends.
The prohibition itself ends.
Sources: WNA; Forbes, 25 May 2026.
The long-term price hit a record while spot sat still
Long-term uranium reached $96.50 a pound in August and stayed there in September. Spot ended at $89.63 and has stayed between about $84 and $94 all year.
InterpretationA rising long-term price with a flat spot reads as buyers worried about later years, not this quarter.
Kazakhstan sent its next big sale east
The Uranium One deal needed a simple majority. It got 5.39% in favour and 88.34% abstained. The SNURDC deal passed at 88.63%, with delivery at the Alashankou rail station.
The size of both deals is secret. I could not find who abstained.
The choke point is one plant's schedule
FactThe reactor is a product. The fuel is a supply line. Only Russia and China make HALEU at scale, and Russia's Tenex cannot sell into the US. Centrus in Ohio is the one licensed Western maker, and its new capacity starts in 2029.
InterpretationIf that date slips, every HALEU reactor plan slips with it. The same week, Kazakhstan routed its next big uranium sale to China, not Russia. What that does to supply is unclear, because the deal sizes are secret.
Most reactors being permitted do not need this fuel
- FactThe first US permit this month went to TVA's 300 MW boiling-water reactor at Clinch River, on 29 September.
- InterpretationThat type normally burns ordinary fuel, where enrichment capacity is in surplus into the early 2030s. I did not confirm its fuel specification.
- FactKazatomprom's contract terms are secret, so the vote may matter less than it looks.
- FactSpot is quiet and uranium shares fell on 7 and 8 October. The market is not panicking.
Sources: US NRC release 26-079; WNA; Energy Intelligence; Kalkine.
China began five of the 11 reactors started in 2026
Eleven starts add up to 10,829 MWe in six countries. China's five are 5,629 MWe, or 52%. One is an SMR: Darlington SMR-1 in Canada, at 300 MWe.
Source: WNA, updated 8 Oct 2026 (built on IAEA PRIS data). Net MWe, to 8 Oct.
Four markers for the fuel story
Cameco reports third-quarter results before the market opens. It may show whether utilities are buying long-term again. Speculation
Who supplies BANR's HALEU. Nobody has named a supplier yet.
The US waiver authority for Russian low-enriched uranium ends.
Centrus's first new HALEU capacity is due.
36 claims checked. 27 verified.
- Verified, 27. Two independent sources, or one primary source.
- Contested, 4. Samruk-Kazyna's stake, a $122 and $115 price claim that Cameco's table contradicts, CNNC's capacity, and the 2025 count of construction starts.
- Unverified, 5. Kept off this page.
- Not found. The BANR announcement day, BANR's fuel supplier, contract sizes, who abstained, and conversion capacity.
- Not checked directly. IAEA PRIS and NRC dockets. I used WNA tables, the IEA and NRC press releases.
- Not charted. SMR licensing: only seven dated steps, none numeric.
Where the numbers come from
- Cameco uranium price
- WNA uranium enrichment
- WNA HALEU
- WNA nuclear power today
- US NRC release 26-079
- World Nuclear News, BANR
- ANS, Centrus HALEU
- NucNet, Kazatomprom vote
- Kursiv, Kazatomprom vote
- Trend.az, SNURDC vote
- Utility Dive, Vistra loan
- US DOE, Russian uranium ban
More from the desk: vizmaya stories. vizmaya desk · 12 October 2026.