Sunrise over the desert around Phoenix, Arizona, during the record-hot summer of 2023

vizmaya desk · 25 October 2026

Heat kills like a disaster. The disaster list leaves it out.

One Arizona county lost 226 people to heat in 2025. All 23 big US weather disasters together killed 276.

Photo: Ray Redstone / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Source

The key numbers

Four numbers to hold on to

226people killed directly by heat in one county, Maricopa County, Arizona2025 · Maricopa County Dept. of Public Health
276people killed in all 23 US billion-dollar weather disasters2025 · Climate Central
23billion-dollar disasters in 2025, up from 11 in 20152015 to 2025 · Climate Central
38months from the first draft of the US heat rule to its target date30 Aug 2024 to Oct 2027 · OSHA agenda, via trackers

First, what is the list?

The list sorts storms into seven boxes. Heat has no box.

Each year, a list counts the US weather events that cost at least $1 billion in damage. The US weather agency, NOAA, kept it for almost half a century. A research group called Climate Central now runs it.

Drought
Flooding
Freeze
Severe storm
Tropical cyclone
Wildfire
Winter storm
Heat wavenot a box

Source: Climate Central, U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, hazard types · Hawaii Public Radio, 3 Sep 2026

Chart 1 · The shape

Billion-dollar disasters more than doubled: 11 in 2015, 23 in 2025

The ten-year average is 20.2 a year. The worst year was 2023, with 28.

Source: Climate Central, U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database, 2015 to 2025. Counts summed from the hazard-type table.

Our reading

Storms break buildings. Heat breaks people.

A flood leaves a repair bill. A hot shift outdoors can leave a funeral.

That is one way heat can kill many people and still not show up on a list built from damage bills.

Ironworkers high on a building site, building a steel frame in open air
Outdoor work like this falls under the proposed US heat rule. Photo: Paul Keheler / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0. Source

Chart 2 · The stress point

In one Arizona county, heat deaths rose from 84 to 430 in ten years

The peak was 645 in 2023. The county counts every death where heat played a part.

Source: Maricopa County Dept. of Public Health, 2025 Heat-Related Deaths Report, April 2026

Chart 3 · The split

One county's heat deaths sit right beside all 23 US disasters

Count every heat-related death and the county is above the list: 430 against 276. Count only deaths heat directly caused and it is below: 226 against 276.

Maricopa County 2025 Heat-Related Deaths Report · Climate Central, 2025 in Review. The two counts use different definitions.

Counter-case

Careful: these two numbers are not built the same way

DollarsThe list counts damage in dollars. Heat can kill people without breaking much.
204deaths in the county count are ones where heat helped but was not the main cause.
Down 33.3%County heat deaths fell from 645 in 2023 to 430 in 2025. And one county is not the country.

Source: Maricopa County 2025 Heat-Related Deaths Report · Climate Central methodology

Who writes the rule?

The US plans to take 38 months to finish one national heat rule

  • 30 Aug 2024The labor safety agency, OSHA, proposes the first national heat rule for workers.
  • 30 Oct 2025The last round of public comments closes.
  • Jul to Aug 2026A House committee advances a bill that would stop OSHA from finishing it.
  • Dec 2026 (planned)OSHA plans an extra proposal.
  • Oct 2027 (planned)Target date for the final rule. Agenda dates are estimates.

Sources: EDF Climate 411, 22 Sep 2026 · Perry Weather · For Construction Pros, 19 Aug 2026

What changed this week

The Philippines spoke up three times this week

  • Tue 20 OctThe labor secretary says a heat index of 40C can be a reason not to work. He floats a 12 to 3 p.m. pause, Nov 2026 to Mar 2027.
  • Wed 21 OctA regional office says advisories on stopping work in extreme heat are coming.
  • Thu 22 OctLabor groups ask for rules that are legally binding.

Heat index is how hot it feels once humidity is counted.

A jeepney, a brightly decorated passenger vehicle, on a street in Manila
A jeepney in Manila. Photo: en:User:Not home / Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Source

Lens: the rule

Who pays for a hot afternoon?

The labor department is writing advisories. An advisory is guidance, not a law.

A 12 to 3 p.m. pause is three work hours a day. Someone pays for them.

Our reading

With an advisory, nothing forces the employer to pay. A binding rule could. Labor groups asked for binding rules on 22 October. The draft is not public, so we cannot say whom it binds.

Pedicabs, pedal-powered passenger tricycles, in a crowded inner-city street of Manila
Pedicab drivers work outdoors all day. Photo: D.Pinpin / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0. Source
Our reading

Fast and soft, or slow and binding. So far, neither has both.

Philippines: advisory
About 1 month, from the 20 Oct announcement to a planned Nov 2026 start
United States: federal rule
38 months, from the Aug 2024 proposal to the Oct 2027 target

Sources: GMA News, 20 Oct 2026 · Perry Weather. The Philippine date is a stated plan, not a final order.

What to watch next

Four dates to watch

  • Nov 2026Does the Philippine midday pause start?Planned start, per the labor secretary. Draft not yet published.
  • Dec 2026OSHA's extra proposalAgenda date. Agenda dates are estimates and can move.
  • Oct 2027OSHA's target for the final heat ruleSame caveat. A House bill to block it has already passed committee.
  • Into 2027A strong El NiñoThe World Meteorological Organization expects it. Philippine officials tie their plan to it.

Sources: WMO update via Rural Voice · Daily Tribune, 21 Oct 2026

Sources and claims log

32 claims23 verified5 contested4 left off the page

Contested: the 2025 cost ($115bn or $118.38bn, both from Climate Central) and three other figures that never reach this page.

Not found: the draft Philippine advisory, a national US series of heat deaths, and a clean series of days above 35C. Insured losses (Swiss Re) mix definitions, so no chart.

Photos, all from Wikimedia Commons: Ray Redstone (CC BY-SA 4.0); Paul Keheler (CC BY 2.0); en:User:Not home (public domain); D.Pinpin (CC BY 2.0).

Other vizmaya work: all stories.

vizmaya desk · 25 October 2026