Space Shuttle photograph of the Strait of Hormuz, with ship wakes and the coasts of Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates
Data story

One narrow strait scared every rich family. Only some moved their money.

What a 2026 survey of 351 family offices shows about worry, action, and who is exposed.

vizmaya desk · 14 October 2026
Photo: NASA, 1982 (STS-4) / Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Archive image, not from 2026.
The people

Who are these families?

A very rich family often hires a small team to run its money. That team is called a family office. It decides what to buy: shares, whole companies, buildings, or plain cash.

In June 2026, Citi Wealth asked 351 of them what worried them, and what they did about it.

Source: Citi Wealth, 2026/27 Global Family Office Report, pp. 14-15.

The calm

First, the good news: almost everyone made money.

89% of the family offices are up so far this year, counting what their holdings would sell for today. Only 5% are down.

Source: report p. 31. Figures are rounded, so they add to 101%.

The idea

Now the risk: a gate that everything must pass through.

A choke point is one narrow place that a whole system depends on. If it closes, everything behind it stops. Think of a single door out of a crowded stadium.

A crude oil tanker at sea, low in the water under a heavy load
A crude oil tanker (not photographed at Hormuz). Photo: Alfvanbeem / Wikimedia Commons, CC0
The gate

The Strait of Hormuz is that gate for oil.

38%

of the world's crude oil flowed through this 33 km strait in the week before the war began. By sea, there is no other way round.

Source: UNCTAD data and Gibson Shipbrokers, via Al Jazeera, 27 Aug 2026.

The shock

Then the gate nearly shut.

The war began on 28 February 2026. Two days later the strait was declared closed. Ship traffic fell from about 100 a day to about 5.

A deal on 17 June lifted it to about 20. After 14 July it fell back to 5.

Source: Al Jazeera, 27 Aug 2026. Newest count, 2 Oct: 997 ships from 18 June to 30 Sept, about 9 to 10 a day (UANI, citing JMIC; daily rate is our arithmetic).

The worry

So the list of worries changed.

A year ago, tariffs (taxes on imports) topped the list at 60%. Now they are at 18%. Worry about rising prices went from 37% to 63%. Worry about the Middle East conflict more than doubled.

Source: report p. 27. Different families answered each year, so read the direction, not the exact gap.

The link

Why an oil worry becomes a price worry.

Dearer oil→Dearer transport→Dearer shops

Trucks, planes and factories run on oil. When it costs more, everything costs more. That is inflation: your money buys less.

Sources: CBS News (US inflation, by month), BBC, 12 May 2026.

The split

The same shock, two very different reactions.

In North America, 60% of family offices changed nothing. In Asia Pacific, only 13% did.

Asia Pacific offices managed more actively and bought more insurance. That insurance is called a hedge: a bet that pays out when your other bets lose.

Source: report p. 30. Offices could pick more than one response.

The reason

Why? Distance from the gate.

Asian economies depend on Middle East oil. Japan gets 77% of its oil from there, China 63%, South Korea 57%.

The report says 85% of oil bound for Asia crosses this strait. We could not confirm that number, so it is the report's claim only.

Source: IEA data via Al Jazeera, 27 Aug 2026; report p. 28.

The result

Moving did not hold Asia back.

26% of Asia Pacific offices gained more than 15% this year. In North America it was 11%.

The report credits strong Asian stock markets. This does not prove hedging caused the gains. It shows that acting did not hurt.

Source: report p. 31.

The money

Nobody ran from the market.

Most new money went into shares: 46% added, 12% cut. Cash and private companies each rose by a net 15 points. Families stayed invested.

Source: report p. 23. Net = share that raised minus share that cut.

The white marble Eccles Building, headquarters of the US Federal Reserve Board in Washington
The US Federal Reserve's headquarters. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain
The twist

The shock came back through interest rates.

3.75-4%

On 16 September 2026 the US Federal Reserve raised its key rate for the first time under chair Kevin Warsh. The report's own investment chief had said a hike was likelier than a cut (p. 44).

Higher rates make borrowing dearer and can weigh on share prices.

Sources: New York Times, Guardian, 16 Sep 2026.

The limit

The calm has a limit.

A drawdown is how far a portfolio falls from its peak. 72% of family offices would not even review their plan until it had fallen 11% or more.

So staying calm is a choice to sit through falls, up to a point. The next test is whether prices and rates push portfolios toward that line.

Source: report p. 36.

What to watch

One gate, two reactions. Three things to watch next.

The gate. About 10 ships a day cross Hormuz now, against about 100 before the war.

The rate. What the Fed does after its 16 September hike.

The calm. Whether the 41% who changed nothing keep sitting still.

Sources & method

Where every number comes from

The survey

  • Citi Wealth, 2026/27 Global Family Office Report: 351 family offices, 40+ countries. Pages 23, 27-31, 36, 44.

Checked against outside sources

Read this before you quote us

The survey covers clients of one bank. Answers are self-reported, and different families answered in 2025 and 2026.

The report calls the closure "temporary". Outside sources from August to early October describe the strait as still largely closed.

The "85% of Asia's oil" figure is the report's claim, which we could not confirm. Pre-war ship counts differ by source (about 100 a day, or 138). We read most outside pages as excerpts. See also more vizmaya stories.

Image credits