Sweden's locked Riksdag: 176 seats, zero governments

Who won Sweden's 13 September election?

The four red-green parties won 176 of the Riksdag's 349 seats, one more than the 175 needed for a majority. They are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP) and the Centre Party (C). The four Tidö parties that backed Kristersson's government won 173: the Moderates (M), the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Christian Democrats (KD) and the Liberals (L).

That almost exactly reverses 2022, when the same groupings split 173–176 the other way. The Sweden Democrats did most of the moving: they fell from 73 seats to 62, their first drop in a general election since 1988. The race was close in votes too. The red-green parties took 49.57% of the vote and the Tidö parties 48.84%. SVT called the result only on 16 September, when Reuters reported about 26,000 votes between the blocs.

The Social Democrats' 28.02% is their lowest share since the party first ran for the Riksdag in 1911, though they remain by far the largest party with 99 seats. The Sweden Democrats lost 3.05 points. Every other party gained, the Left Party most of all, up 1.66 points to 8.40% and 30 seats. Jimmie Åkesson of SD won the most personal votes of any candidate, 372,556.

How does the Riksdag choose a prime minister?

Sweden doesn't require a prime minister to win a majority. It only requires that a majority doesn't vote against them. Under chapter 6 of the Instrument of Government (Regeringsformen), the Speaker consults the party groups and puts forward a candidate. The Riksdag must vote within four days. The candidate fails only if more than half of all members, 175 or more, vote no. Abstentions effectively count in the candidate's favour.

The 2019 vote shows how it works. Löfven had 115 yes votes against 153 no, but 77 members abstained, so the no side never reached 175 and he took office. Once a fourth candidate is rejected, the Speaker must set an extra election within three months, after consulting Valmyndigheten, the election authority. The caretaker government cannot call one itself. In an extra election, advance voting would start 10 days before election day rather than the usual 18.

Why is a Moderate still the Speaker?

The Speaker, Andreas Norlén, decides who explores next, whether to call a vote and in what order. That matters because it decides which side faces the pressure of the final, election-triggering vote. Norlén belongs to Kristersson's party, the Moderates, and has held the job since 2018. Some online explainers have described him as tied to the opposition. That is misleading.

On 28 September Norlén won a rare third term, beating the Social Democrats' Johanna Haraldsson 200–146 in a secret ballot. The decisive votes came from the Left Party, a red-green party. It said it trusted Norlén's experience from the 2018–19 deadlock and wanted stability. The Social Democrats' Lena Hallengren called the move a "betrayal", and Andersson handed back her first mandate the same day.

Haraldsson became first deputy speaker and SD's Julia Kronlid second. Norlén has said he will check whether the red-green side has moved before he calls a third vote.

Which red lines are freezing the majority?

The deadlock sits inside the winning side. The red-green parties have the seats but disagree on who should sit in the cabinet. The Centre Party will not govern alongside the Left Party, and the Left Party will not support a government it isn't part of.

The numbers make the Centre Party the hinge. The Tidö side has only 173 votes, so on its own it cannot block a candidate that all four red-green parties tolerate. But if the Centre Party's 25 MPs abstain, the red-green side's 176 shrinks to 151 and Kristersson would pass. C's choice can elect either Andersson, with the Left Party's tolerance, or Kristersson.

How many tries are left?

Two. The first vote, on 15 October, was on a Social Democrat single-party government under Andersson. Only S's 99 MPs voted yes; all seven other parties voted no, 248 in total. The second, on 3 November, was on Thand Ringqvist for a "centre government". She had originally pictured that government with Andersson as prime minister, and said it was not "the most logical" for her to be the candidate. Only her own party's 25 MPs voted yes, against 324.

Commentators widely described both votes as procedural tests to burn through options before red lines soften. Before the election, some had predicted that at least two candidates would have to be voted down first.

What has happened since election day?

Here is the deadlock, week by week, from election night to Kristersson's deadline.

1. 13 SepElection day. Turnout 84.9%.
2. 16 SepSVT projects an opposition win, with about 26,000 votes between the blocs.
3. 17 SepKristersson asks to be discharged and leads a caretaker government. The Centre Party declines four-party talks while the Left Party demands cabinet seats.
4. 18 SepSpeaker Norlén gives Andersson the first exploratory mandate.
5. ~21 SepA police complaint about ballots in Borlänge is reported; a prosecutor opens an investigation.
6. 28 SepWith Left Party votes, Norlén is re-elected Speaker 200–146. Andersson hands back her mandate.
7. 2 OctAndersson gets a second mandate.
8. 13 OctAndersson reports no basis for a government. Norlén calls a vote.
9. 15 OctVote 1: Andersson rejected, 99–248.
10. 16 OctValmyndigheten estimates an extra election would cost just over SEK 630 million.
11. 19 OctThand Ringqvist is asked to explore a "middle alternative".
12. 26 OctShe returns the mandate: a majority for centre policies, she says, but not for a centre government.
13. 28 OctValmyndigheten says it is ready for an extra election.
14. 3 NovVote 2: Thand Ringqvist rejected, 25–324. Kristersson gets a mandate.
15. 10 NovKristersson reports to the Speaker.

Sources: riksdagen.se, SVT, Sveriges Radio, Expressen, TT, Åklagarmyndigheten.

Does the Borlänge investigation change the result?

"That is an increase of 6,000 percent. These are exceptional figures."

Svante O Johansson, chair of the Election Review Board, to SVT (translated)

Johansson calls talk of a re-run "just speculation".

Has Sweden been stuck like this before?

Yes, for longer. After the 2018 election it took 134 days to install a government, Stefan Löfven's second cabinet. Day 52 is well past the 37 days it took in 2022, but nowhere near that record.

In 2018 Kristersson was rejected 154–195 and Löfven 116–200 before the January Agreement let Löfven through. Andersson's first 2021 approval came with 174 no votes, one short of rejection. Both 2026 rejections were far wider: 248 and 324 no votes.

Sweden has come close to an extra election before. In December 2014, Löfven announced one for March 2015 after his budget fell, then cancelled it on 27 December under the December Agreement. Constituency re-runs are rarer still. The Västra Götaland regional re-run was in 2011, for the 2010 election, not after 2018 as some posts claim. After 2018, the only re-run was Falun's municipal election in April 2019, over 145 late advance votes.

Will Sweden hold an extra election?

Probably not, though it is a real risk. SVT's Mats Knutson calls Kristersson's task "almost impossible", since he needs the Centre Party at least to abstain. After 10 November, the Speaker may put Kristersson to a vote, or first check whether the red-green side has moved. The Local has sketched a last attempt by Andersson in late November or December, and an extra election in February or March 2027 if that fails. These are projections, not scheduled events.

The polls are the strongest argument for a deal. Since the election three of four major polls have moved toward the Tidö parties, by 3 to 5.9 points. Only Verian, for SVT, still has the red-green side ahead. A new election could cost the red-green side the majority it already holds.

Voters are also cool on the Left Party's demand. In a Novus poll for TV4 (1–7 October), 64% said they did not want V in government and 22% did. Only 19% backed V's demand for cabinet posts, while 50% backed the Centre Party's position. Indikator's Per Oleskog Tryggvason called the swing in leader trust "quite dramatic".

"An extra election would be a political failure."

Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, Centre Party leader (translated)

Not everyone agrees. The Christian Democrats' Lars Adaktusson has called an extra election a "reasonable consequence". There's also the cost, over SEK 630 million, and the MPs it elected would serve only until the regular 2030 election.

What to watch

• 10 November: Kristersson's report, and whether Norlén calls vote 3 on him or first returns to the red-green side.
• Any softening of red lines: junior or non-cabinet roles for V, a Centre abstention, or SD dropping its demand for ministers.
• Borlänge: any decision on charges, and the Election Review Board's ruling.
• November polls from Verian, Novus, Indikator and Demoskop: does the drift to the right continue?

What do viral explainers get wrong about the deadlock?

Online explainers about Sweden's stalemate have spread fast. We checked six common claims.

• Correct

  Four rejected candidates trigger an extra election within three months.

  Instrument of Government, chapter 6, article 5. The Speaker sets the date after consulting Valmyndigheten.

• Correct

  The Left Party insists on cabinet posts.

  Dadgostar says V won't vote for a government it is not in; Gabrielsson repeated it on 2 November.

• Partly

  The Centre Party refuses to cooperate with the Left.

  It refuses V in government, not all cooperation. It has accepted the idea of an S minority government with V outside.

• Misleading

  The Speaker has ties to the opposition.

  Norlén is a Moderate, the caretaker prime minister's party. He was re-elected with Left Party votes against the Social Democrat candidate.

• Unverified

  Supporters handed out pre-filled ballots in specific districts.

  This is the content of a police complaint. No authority has identified districts, and SVT's police source found no evidence of pre-written ballots. The candidate named in coverage, Mohamed Abdukardir Ali, is not a suspect.

• Wrong date

  Västra Götaland held a re-run after the 2018 election.

  That re-run was in May 2011, for the 2010 election. The post-2018 re-run was Falun's municipal election in April 2019.

For more of our data journalism, see all vizmaya stories.