Semiconductors · AI memory
The biggest seller of AI memory lost 8 points of share in a quarter. Its sales rose by half.
Here is how the AI memory market works, from the ground up, and what its prices say about who is winning.
vizmaya desk · 9 October 2026
The story in four numbers
The leader's slice got smaller while its sales grew, and prices tell us why.
SK hynix's share of AI memory sales
January to March, then April to June 2026. Counterpoint Research, 3 Sep 2026
Growth in SK hynix's total sales over the same quarter
April to June vs January to March 2026. SK hynix, 29 Jul 2026
Rise in ordinary memory contract prices in one quarter
January to March 2026. TrendForce, 1 Jun 2026
Forecast rise in the average AI memory price next year
2027 vs 2026. TrendForce, 29 Sep 2026
Start here
AI chips need a huge memory right next to them, so makers stack it like a tower.
A chip does the maths. Memory is the desk where it keeps the numbers it is working on. AI work uses enormous piles of numbers, so the desk has to be big and very close.
To fit it, makers stack memory chips on top of each other. The tower is called HBM, short for high bandwidth memory.
Three companies make it: SK hynix and Samsung in South Korea, and Micron in the United States.
First principles
AI memory takes more than twice the factory space it gives back.
Memory is cut from round slices of silicon called wafers. AI memory uses far more wafer for each bit of memory.
In 2026 it takes about 22% of the factory space but makes about 9% of the memory. Every slice it takes is one ordinary memory loses.
Source: TrendForce, 2 Jun 2026. Forecast for the three biggest makers.
In 2026 AI memory is forecast to take 22% of wafer space and make 9% of memory bits; in 2027, 30% and 13%.
Two clocks
Ordinary memory is repriced every quarter. AI memory is repriced once a year.
AI memory prices are fixed in yearly contracts between the three makers and their big buyers. Ordinary memory resets every three months.
When memory ran short, ordinary prices jumped and the yearly AI prices could not keep up. TrendForce says AI memory contract prices fell in 2026.
+93% to +98%
How much ordinary memory contract prices rose in one quarter, January to March 2026.
A surprise
For a while, a plain server memory stick earned more than AI memory.
TrendForce estimates that, from the same slice of silicon, a standard 64GB server memory stick made more money than AI memory in January to March 2026.
AI memory is the product everyone talks about. Its yearly price had fallen behind the rest of the market.
This is TrendForce's own estimate. It is built from chip size, how many chips come out good, and the price per unit of memory.
Source: TrendForce, 2 Jun 2026
Who is winning
SK hynix gave up 8 points of share in one quarter.
Counterpoint Research tracks who earns what from AI memory. Samsung gained 12 points. Micron lost 3.
Counterpoint says SK hynix sells the most AI memory, so it felt the lower AI memory price the most.
Source: Counterpoint Research, 3 Sep 2026, reported by Edaily. Share of AI memory sales, not units.
Share of AI memory sales, January to March vs April to June 2026: SK hynix 58% to 50%, Samsung 21% to 33%, Micron 21% to 18%.
But look at the sales
A smaller slice of a much bigger pie.
SK hynix's total sales were 3.6 times higher than a year earlier. Micron, which also lost AI memory share, sold 4.8 times what it did a year before.
Losing share did not mean losing sales. The whole market grew too fast for that.
Sources: SK hynix, 29 Jul 2026; Micron filing, 30 Sep 2026. Total company sales, latest quarter vs the same quarter a year earlier.
Total sales vs a year earlier: SK hynix 3.6 times, from 22.2 trillion won to 79.3 trillion won; Micron 4.8 times, from 11.3 billion dollars to 54.2 billion dollars.
Our reading, not a finding
Who is winning, who is losing, and what the market expects.
Winning share
Samsung. Its share of AI memory sales went from 21% to 33% in one quarter.
Losing share
SK hynix and Micron. Both still sell several times what they sold a year ago.
Priced in
A big price reset in 2027. Micron told investors most of its 2027 AI memory is already sold at higher prices, with 26 long term customer deals.
Sources: Counterpoint Research; TrendForce, 29 Sep 2026; investor summary of Micron's call; Herald Business
Contested
Nobody agrees on why SK hynix slipped.
SK hynix sells the most AI memory, so it felt the lower AI price the most, while ordinary memory prices soared. Counterpoint Research and TrendForce both point to this.
TrendForce said in June that Samsung finished testing the next version, HBM4, first, and that SK hynix's mass production slipped to July to September. SK hynix said in July it began mass shipments of HBM4 in April to June. The accounts do not match, and we could not settle it.
Our guess If SK hynix's new version ramps up this half, its share could recover. That is not a finding.
Sources: TrendForce bulletin, 23 Jun 2026; SK hynix, 29 Jul 2026; Counterpoint via ICT Business
What the market expects
121%
Forecast rise in the average AI memory price in 2027 vs 2026. A forecast, not a result.
The yearly price clock is about to reset.
TrendForce raised its 2027 forecast. Supply stays tight, more sales will be the newer and dearer HBM4, and an even newer version starts late in 2027.
The risk: some chip designers want shorter towers, 8 layers instead of 12, to save money. TrendForce says prices would still rise, because every tower needs a base layer that costs the same at any height.
Source: TrendForce, 29 Sep 2026
The stress point
Ordinary memory is still getting dearer, but each rise is smaller.
TrendForce expects 10% to 15% for the last three months of 2026, down from 93% to 98% at the start of the year.
We could not confirm its forecast for July to September, so that bar is left empty.
Sources: TrendForce, 1 Jun 2026; TrendForce 4Q26 outlook, 30 Sep 2026. Bars show the middle of each range.
Quarterly rise in ordinary memory contract prices: about 93% to 98% in January to March 2026, 58% to 63% forecast for April to June, no confirmed figure for July to September, 10% to 15% forecast for October to December.
What changed lately
Three things in the last two weeks.
TrendForce raised its 2027 AI memory price forecast to +121%.
Micron reported $54.23 billion of sales for June to August and guided to $61.5 billion for its next quarter.
Samsung's July to September results were due. We have only press reports, so we hold the numbers back until we check them against Samsung's filing.
What to watch next
Four things that will settle the argument.
Samsung's full results
Press reports say its call comes later in October. Does the filing back up the early numbers?
SK hynix's July to September results
Date not confirmed. Do its AI memory sales keep up with Samsung's?
Counterpoint's next share numbers
Does SK hynix stop losing share once its new version ships in volume?
The size of each price rise
If ordinary memory rises fall below the 10% to 15% forecast, the 2027 reset gets harder to believe.
What we could not find
The key number is not public.
AI memory sales in dollars
We found each company's share from one research firm, but no company-by-company dollar figure.
Price levels
We found percent changes only, and could not confirm the July to September forecast.
Factory spending over time
We found one company's yearly total from a single source, so we left it out.
Samsung's filing
Not yet checked against its 8 October numbers.
Sources and claims log
- TrendForce, HBM 2027 price outlook, 29 Sep 2026
- TrendForce, HBM pricing and bit share, 2 Jun 2026
- TrendForce, 1Q26 DRAM industry, 1 Jun 2026
- TrendForce 4Q26 price outlook, via iFeng, 30 Sep 2026
- TrendForce HBM bulletin, 23 Jun 2026
- Counterpoint Research, DRAM and HBM share
- Edaily, HBM share, 3 Sep 2026
- SK hynix, 2Q26 results, 29 Jul 2026
- Micron, fiscal Q4 2026 filing, 30 Sep 2026
- Herald Business, 6 Oct 2026
By vizmaya desk · 9 October 2026. Forecasts are labelled as forecasts. No photographs were used.